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13th Jul 2016 | Open Championship

The Open First Round Leader Tip: Jason Dufner

The Open First Round Leader Tip: Jason Dufner

Tees off at 14.37 and leads the PGA Tour in late round one scoring. Has made the last four cuts at the Open.

With only 24 hours to go until the Open we should (in theory) have a fairly reliable weather forecast. Thursday looks pleasent, relatively warm and with a consistent light wind of ~10mph all day. There shouldn’t be much advantage for either side of the draw but something Charl Schwartzel mentioned on Sky yesterday grabbed my attention.

He was asked if players with a late tee-time sat around and watched any coverage of the golf and he said yes. The reason being it gave players an idea of how the course was playing and which flags could be attacked and which couldn’t.

Given equal climatic conditions could late starters have an advantage? That doesn’t seem to be the case on the PGA Tour. The top-60 early round one starters average 69.41, late starters 69.64.

Whilst trawling through this data one name jumped out – Jason Dufner.


The 39-year-old leads the tour in late round one scoring average but is only 87th when teeing off in the morning. The sample size is small (16 rounds) but for someone with such a laid-back demeanour perhaps he enjoys a lie-in!

At Troon he has a late 14.37 tee-time and will have the chance to watch some golf coverage during the morning. After missing his first two cuts at the Open, his record reads MC-MC-31-26-51-58 and it strikes me as someone becoming accustomed to the challenge of a links.

Already a major winner and with a recent top-10 at the US Open, Dufner has the ability to compete at this level. He is an attractive outright bet at 200/1 but with his late tee-time I’m going with a first round leader punt at 100/1 (Paddy Power) with 1/5 odds for a top-8 finish.

1pt First Round Leader: Jason Dufner e/w 100/1 with Paddypower
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Odds correct at time of publishing: 07:52 13th Jul, 2016 but subject to change