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17th Jul 2017 | Open Championship

Open Championship Trends

Open Championship Trends

Royal Birkdale hosts the 146th Open Championship. We look at the trends of the last ten winners for some pointers.

The Open Championship returns to Royal Birkdale for the first time since 2008 when Pádraig Harrington won his second Open title.

We look at the trends of the last ten winners of the Open in the hope of finding some clues for this week.

Top-60 scoring average
An overarching metric that is a good test of a player’s all-round ability. Darren Clarke was a surprise winner in 2011, the only player in the last ten years to win with a scoring average outside of the top-60 on tour. The previously unheralded Louis Oosthuizen and Stewart Cink ranked 7th and 49th on their respective tours during their triumphs.

Top-60 in strokes gained tee-to-green
Pundits often say accuracy is key on a links course but more it’s quality tee-to-green that is needed. A combination of good driving (reasonably long and straight) plus excellent approach play is the recipe for success. Eight of the last nine winners (PGA Tour data only) ranked inside the top-60 for strokes gained tee-to-green.

Open Championship form
A links course offers a unique challenge and therefore previous links experience is an advantage. Nine of the last ten winners recorded a top-15 finish at the Open prior to their wins. Eight of them came within five years of their wins. 

Players that qualify for all three trends (PGA Tour data only):
Adam Scott 33/1
Bill Haas 150/1
Dustin Johnson 11/1
Francesco Molinari 100/1
Gary Woodland 200/1
Hideki Matsuyama 20/1
Ian Poulter 100/1
Jordan Spieth 14/1
Justin Rose 20/1
Keegan Bradley 150/1
Louis Oosthuizen 50/1
Marc Leishman 66/1
Matt Kuchar 80/1
Phil Mickelson 40/1
Rickie Fowler 20/1
Sergio Garcia 20/1
Steve Stricker 200/1
Tyrrell Hatton 70/1

Open Championship: Marc Leishman to win 66/1 with Betfred
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