16th Jul 2018 | Open Championship

Open Championship Trends

Open Championship Trends

Royal Birkdale hosts the 146th Open Championship. We look at the trends of the last ten winners for some pointers.

The Open Championship returns to Carnoustie for the first time since 2007 when Pádraig Harrington won his first Open title.

We look at the trends of the last eleven winners of the Open in the hope of finding some clues for this week.

Top-60 scoring average
An overarching metric that is a good test of a player’s all-round ability. Darren Clarke was a surprise winner in 2011, the only player in the last ten years to win with a scoring average outside of the top-60 on tour. The previously unheralded Louis Oosthuizen and Stewart Cink ranked 7th and 49th on their respective tours during their triumphs.

Top-60 in strokes gained tee-to-green
Pundits often say accuracy is key on a links course but more it’s quality tee-to-green that is needed. A combination of good driving (reasonably long and straight) plus excellent approach play is the recipe for success. Nine of the last ten winners (PGA Tour data only) ranked inside the top-60 for strokes gained tee-to-green.

Open Championship form
A links course offers a unique challenge and therefore previous links experience is an advantage. Ten of the last eleven winners recorded a top-15 finish at the Open prior to their wins. Nine of them came within five years of their wins. 

Players that qualify for all three trends (PGA Tour data only):
Alex Noren
Branden Grace
Brooks Koepka
Dustin Johnson
Emiliano Grillo
Francesco Molinari
Gary Woodland
Henrik Stenson
Jason Day
Jordan Spieth
Justin Rose
Keegan Bradley
Louis Oosthuizen
Marc Leishman
Patrick Reed
Paul Casey
Phil Mickelson
Rafa Cabrera Bello
Rickie Fowler
Rory McIlroy
Ryan Moore
Tiger Woods
Zach Johnson

Open Championship: Marc Leishman to win 50/1 with Bet365
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Odds correct at time of publishing: 18:52 16th Jul, 2018 but subject to change

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