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6th Feb 2018 | ATT Pebble Beach National

AT&T Pebble Beach Trends

Pebble Beach trends

The PGA Tour travels to the iconic Pebble Beach for the AT&T Pro-Am event. We look at the trends of past winners to guide us to future champions.

It has been an exciting start to the PGA Tour season and the thrills are set to continue at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

Spread across three courses, the 156 competitors will each play Pebble Beach, Spyglass Hill Golf Club and Monterey Peninsula Country Club before the cut, with the final round returning to Pebble Beach.

The three courses measure less than 7,000 yards but are by no means easy. Much of the field often play Spyglass and Pebble Beach over par, with Monterey providing easier pickings.

Let us look at the eleven previous champions for clues:

Top-60 on tour for approaches 50-125 yards
None of the courses are particularly long, all measuring less than 7000 yards, therefore players will be hitting plenty of wedges into greens. This element of the game needs to be working well.

Top-60 on tour for par-5 scoring average
There are four par-5s on each course used in the rotation. You have to take care of the long holes to have a chance of winning because they are the most scoreable. Eight of the last eleven winners ranked inside the top-60 for par-5 scoring average.

Top-60 on tour for birdie or better conversion
Pebble Beach is a coastal track and relies on the weather for defence but in benign conditions it can be attacked; Brandt Snedeker won on 22-under in 2015. With a forgiving set-up to help the amateurs, there are birdies on offer. Ten of the last eleven champions ranked inside the top-60 for birdie conversion.

Top-60 on tour for scoring average
Pebble Beach has provided the odd shock over the years, with Steve Lowery in 2008 the most notable but also Vaughn Taylor last year. Generally though the best come to the fore; nine of the past eleven winners finished the season inside the top-60 in adjusted scoring average.

Players that fit all four trends:
Dustin Johnson
Jon Rahm
Phil Mickelson

Phil Mickelson to win 33/1 with Stan James
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Odds correct at time of publishing: 18:57 6th Feb, 2018 but subject to change

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