14th Jun 2014 | World Cup
Winner/Top Scorer Double Tip: Brazil/Messi
In six of the last seven World Cups the top goalscorer has not come from the winning team. The bookies don't seem to have factored that in to their prices.
As an alternative to our outright winner and Golden Boot tips we can of course spread our risk by taking a couple of other contenders in each market, put them together, and attempt an ambitious winner/top goalscorer double.
Most firms are offering up a wide range of odds in this market but none looks more attractive than Brazil to lift the trophy with Lionel Messi top scoring at a best price of 50/1 with WilliamHill.
This may at first appear to be an unharmonious pairing but consider that only Brazil’s Ronaldo has won the Golden Boot and seen his side lift the trophy since 1982. There is no reason to think that the leading individual will necessarily get his hands on the main team prize as well.
Brazil begin life in what may be the easiest of all the sections. It’s hard to imagine how the hosts will slip up against Mexico, Ivory Croatia or Cameroon. Assuming they top the Group A standings, Phil Scolari’s boys will then have an open route to the semi-finals where they would be likely to face Germany. That would be a tough test but Joachim Lowe’s team have struggled to get past the final four in recent years and surely wouldn’t relish the ultimate away game.
On the other side of the draw I expect Argentina to go far and Messi to prosper. Iran and Nigeria provide the Barcelona star with opportunities for early goals and again the South Americans’ route to the final four looks assured. There they might face Spain, and that will be a mighty test.
But from a Golden Boot perspective we mustn’t forget the third place play-off. Both the losing semi-finalists will play as many matches as the finalists. This means that any striker in one of the top four sides could play seven matches. If Messi stays fit, and avoids suspensions, there’s nobody who looks more likely to keep finding the net.
As for the winner, Brazil on home soil will take some stopping. We’ve already sided with Spain on the strict understanding that we get our money back if either of the South American big guns triumph instead. Without that proviso, I’m happy to take on this 50/1 alternative as an enticing long shot.
Odds correct at time of publishing: 18:27 14th Jun, 2014 but subject to change
