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10th Jun 2014 | World Cup

Team to Concede Least Goals: Greece

In 2010 a team that departed after round one claimed this market. It's a great novelty option because with a bit of thought and analysis you might just land a hefty outsider.

The team to concede the fewest goals market is a bit of a personal favourite because it’s such a mind-bender! The best four teams will all play seven games so are they really a better bet than a team that goes out early?

For example, in 2012, champions Spain only conceded two times in total but Switzerland went out in the first round having only conceded once. The conclusion I have reached is that we want to find the ‘new Switzerland’ - a team who are likely to exit after three matches in which they have defended well but just can’t score.

The side that leaps out at me based on this criteria is Greece. They had the joint-second best defensive record in qualifying (behind Spain), conceding just four times in 10 matches. Unfortunately, they also scored fewer goals (12) than any other European outfit that made it to the World Cup.

Two of Greece’s last three matches have ended 0-0 and Fernando Santos’s boys have failed to score in three of their last four warm-up outings. Recently they are averaging just 3.6 shots on target per game but conceding just 1.8 shots on target per game. In other words, the low scoring matches are no fluke.

Group C looks relatively tame and it’s easy to imagine Greece’s defence holding its own.  However, they look devoid of ideas at the other end and there’s too much pressure on Mitroglou who hasn’t been properly fit for months. For us, this is potentially a very good combination. The 2004 European champions are 20/1 (Boylesports) to concede the fewest goals in Brazil.

1pt To concede the least goals: Greece 20/1 with Boylesports
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Odds correct at time of publishing: 17:20 10th Jun, 2014 but subject to change

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