Group D Tip: 5 Points for England

England are a best price of 17/2 (Bet365) to score 5 points in Group D and that looks like a bargain given that less likely points totals are shorter odds.

To finish on five points the Three Lions would have to win one match and draw the other two. Normally it would be ill-advised to make such a specific forecast but on this occasion the gamble looks justified.

The main reason for this is that Uruguay, Italy and England are all going to be feeling each other out and absolutely desperate to avoid what could be a calamitous defeat. Two of the three are likely to progress and given the sides involved, a cautious and cagey approach looks likely. In that scenario, a few draws are on the cards.

The other theory behind this prediction is that Costa Rica will struggle to find so much as a single point in Group D. It’s unthinkable that England won’t need three points out of their final clash with the Central Americans.

I expect Roy Hodgson’s boys to happily share the spoils with an Italian side who have drawn six of their last seven games. If they achieve that then more of the same will probably do against Uruguay, who will probably share the sentiment, assuming they have beaten Costa Rica by then.

There’s a fair chance that it will all come down to goal difference and England might have a slight advantage by playing the weakest side last. It remains to be seen if five points would be enough to progress, but we would at least win our wager regardless.