11th Jun 2014 | World Cup
World Cup Top Goalscorer Tip: Edin Dzeko
His goals propelled his club to the title and he fired 10 times for Bosnia in qualifying. In a group containing a couple of weaker sides, the Man City striker can hit the ground running.
The betting for the Golden Boot has a predictable pageant of frontrunners. Five of the top six contenders, according to the bookies, play for Brazil or Argentina. The other is World Player of the Year Cristiano Ronaldo (18/1 BetVictor).
The Portuguese star has so far scored only two goals over two World Cups. His biggest rival on the world stage, and the favourite, Lionel Messi (8/1 Ladbrokes), has only found the net once over two World Cups.
This suggests there are potentially better options at longer prices and with most firms paying out at 1/4 odds for a top four finish, it’s worth our while to be more adventurous. Nobody leaps out at me more than Edin Dzeko - the Bosnian talisman is a best price 66/1 shot with Betfred.
The 28-year-old arrives fresh from a title-winning campaign at Manchester City in which he played a key role. He scored 26 times in all competitions which is exceptional when you consider that he spent much of the first half of the season relegated to the bench. In the end, Manuel Pellegrini simply couldn’t leave the 6ft 4in striker out of the side when it mattered most. He responded with five goals in the crucial final four games as City snatched the league from Liverpool.
Significantly, unlike many of the players at shorter odds, Dzeko is just as potent at international level, so we aren’t looking for him to suddenly replicate his club form. He found the net ten times in qualifying; that was more than Ronaldo and Ibrahimovic and the second best record in all of Europe.
Only Van Persie scored more (11), but I think the Dutch will have a tough task simply progressing to round two with Spain and Chile waiting in their section. I have more confidence that Bosnia will advance from Group F, even if their tournament begins against mighty Argentina.
From there the Dragons face Nigeria and Iran. Those sides will do very well to shut out a striker who averaged 3.2 shots per game for City in 2013-14 and had a goals per 90 minute record of 0.72. After that, Bosnia would potentially face France or Switzerland in the last 16 and they are capable of beating either. That would take Dzeko to the quarter-finals at least, and over the course of five matches or more, he can be a Golden Boot contender.
Odds correct at time of publishing: 10:02 11th Jun, 2014 but subject to change
