Who Framed Rodgers Title Bid?

The old cliché that football is a results based industry needs updating for the 21st century. Football reporting is a results based industry.

The spotlight has fallen on Liverpool’s poor start to the season but rather than take pot shots at the manager let’s approach it from a statistical viewpoint.

If we assign a goal expectation to all the shots for and against Liverpool, we can build a new set of results; in effect taking ‘luck’ out the equation.

We see that under ‘normal’ circumstances Liverpool would have 20 points (19.79 to be precise) from 12 games. That would put them fourth in the league, about where most people expected them to be at the start of the season.

Dig a little deeper however and we cannot wash everything away under the auspices of ‘luck’.

Before his injury, Mario Balotelli took a disproportionate amount of the blame for Liverpool’s woes. Yes, he has been wayward in front of goal but Liverpool have scored 15 goals, when their shot data suggest 17 goals were expected; not a massive deviation.

It is at the other end of the pitch where the blame lies. Rather than conceding 13 goals, Liverpool have in fact conspired to let in 18 goals, far worse than expected.

Liverpool are making fewer tackles per game than last season 22.3 v 19.7 but they are conceding fewer shots 10.8 v 12.6, therefore something else must be at play.

#EPL Big Chances conceded 2014/15 1= Chelsea, Stoke 11 3= Southampton, West Brom 12 19= QPR, Liverpool 21

— Dan Kennett (@DanKennett) November 8, 2014

At the start of the month Liverpool were ranked 19th in terms of big chances conceded according to OPTA, driven in large by individual errors.

Brendan Rodgers has two options. Teach his defenders how to defend or outscore the opposition. If he reverts to the latter, (2013/14 tactics) backing Liverpool to win but both teams to score might be a shrewd move in the short term.