1st Oct 2016 | Premier League
Swansea Strikers Must Start Scoring
Swansea’s underlying metrics aren’t too bad they just need their strikers to find the net and improve a wretched 20% conversion rate.
A few weeks ago, I was quite happy to get stuck into Liverpool but recent performances have made me reevaluate my position.
Liverpool are riding high in all my underlying metrics. They top the league in terms of shots for and against (both game state adjusted) and their average expected goal difference per game is 1.09, another league leader.
Jurgen Klopp might have genuine title challengers but I’m afraid they are still opposable in the betting. His team are 1/2 to win at Swansea, a similar price to that of Man City seven days ago and that wasn’t exactly plain sailing. The teams were level after an hour and Swansea can count themselves slightly unlucky the way decisions went against them.
Francesco Guidolin finds himself under immense pressure but not all of that is of his own making. Swansea are 14th in the league for shot metrics but have been punished by wayward finishing.
Swansea’s current scoring rate is a paltry 20% (par is 32%) but with Fernando Llorente finally amongst the goals and Borja Bastón returning from injury brighter times are ahead.
Eventually Swansea will start moving up the league, their manager must hope a change of fortune comes soon enough to save his job. Swansea/Draw is the play in the double chance market at 9/5.
Odds correct at time of publishing: 07:23 1st Oct, 2016 but subject to change
