Striking Differences In North London

In north London it’s a tale of two strikers. Olivier Giroud started the season like a train but three goals in his last ten appearances has seen the Frenchman relegated to the bench.

Arsenal fans could be forgiven for casting envious glances at their neighbours as former Gunner, Emmanuel Adebayor bangs in the goals. Revitalised under Tim Sherwood, the Togo striker has scored six in his last ten appearances. 

If you were forced to pick between them for a goalscorer bet, Adebayor would be the obvious choice – but is that correct?

Taking into account shot location and accuracy we get a different picture.

Olivier Giroud Actual & Expected Goals

Bar = Actual goals per game moving average
Line = Expected goals per game moving average

Using a moving average comprising the last six games, we expect Giroud to be scoring 0.42 goals per game based on his shot location and quality. This is what we call his goal expectation.

The white dotted line shows his goal expectation has dipped in recent weeks but the Frenchman is still scoring (the red bar) in line with expectations. Perhaps Giroud is a victim of Arsenal’s dip in form rather than the cause.

Emmanuel Adebayor Actual & Expected Goals

Bar = Actual goals per game moving average
Line = Expected goals per game moving average

In the other half of north London we see the spectacular goal scoring record of Emmanuel Adebayor.

At 0.27, the Tottenham target man actually has a lower goal expectation per game than Olivier Giroud but he is enjoying a purple patch; scoring 3 times more often than you would expect of a ‘normal’ striker when taking into account shot location and accuracy.

Summary
Unless Tottenham’s strategy changes and they become more offensive and/or efficient, Emmanuel Adebayor’s goal scoring will cool off because his current rate is unsustainable given the quantity and quality of his shots.

Olivier Giroud isn’t enjoying the same goal scoring opportunities he was afforded earlier in the season but at least he’s still scoring at a rate you would expect from a ‘normal’ striker.  Whether normal is good enough to sustain a title challenge is a question for another day.