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4th Apr 2014 | Premier League

Slow Starters Face Serial Capitulators

Villa let in too many first half goals while Fulham are particularly inept in the second period.

There’s likely to be a distinct lack of feel-good factor around Villa Park on Saturday afternoon as a home side on poor form, missing its top goalscorer, faces the team bottom of the league.

Fulham simply have to start winning matches and, to their credit, they have competed in most of their fixtures over the last couple of months. They drew 2-2 at Old Trafford, led till late on at WBA, held Chelsea till half-time, beat Newcastle, and only lost late on against Cardiff, Liverpool and Everton.

But this is the Cottagers’ problem. They can’t maintain their discipline for 90 minutes very often at all and have conceded 70% of their 73 goals in the second half of matches.

Villa are almost the opposite. They have conceded the highest percentage of first half goals in the top flight (54%) this season. Paul Lambert will have a job on stopping his boys from starting sluggishly here again following consecutive 4-1 defeats and the news that Benteke is ruled out for at least six months with a ruptured Achilles tendon.

Put it all together and I can see this ending as a mutually unsatisfactory draw, but with the visitors starting brighter, yet failing to hold on again. At a huge best price of 17/1 (BetVictor), I therefore see value in backing Fulham/Draw in the half-time/full-time market.

1pt Half-time: Fulham - Full-time: Draw 17/1 with BetVictor
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Odds correct at time of publishing: 07:57 4th Apr, 2014 but subject to change

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