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8th Mar 2015 | FA Cup

Reds To Rule Over Rovers Eventually

Blackburn haven't trailed at half-time in their last 20 games across all competitions which leads us to one obvious market.

Liverpool are looking razor-sharp as of late but we have to find a way to improve on best odds of 3/10 (WilliamHill) on the hosts winning this FA Cup quarter-final in 90 minutes.

The solution is found in closer examination of Blackburn’s performances over the last three months or so. Remarkably, Rovers have not been behind at half-time since 22 November - a run of 20 matches in all competitions.

The Championship side have lost seven times in that sequence having always been in front or level at the break. This tells us that Gary Bowyer generally sends his team out in a well-organised and disciplined mode, but for whatever reason their levels often drop in the end. This could be down to loss of concentration, or fitness related, or something else - it doesn’t really matter for the purpose of our bet.

What it does suggest is that rather than taking ‘Liverpool/Liverpool’ in the half-time/full-time market (17/20) we’d find better value in ‘Draw/Liverpool’ at best odds of 16/5 with Betfred. Class should prevail, but it may take a little while to be established.

Odds correct at time of publishing: 07:40 8th Mar, 2015 but subject to change

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