21st Feb 2020 | Premier League

Sheffield United v Brighton Tip

Big gap in league positions but underlying metrics have them closer. Brighton not been 'beaten' on expected goals since these sides met nine games ago and their stronger attack can make the difference.

Twelve points separate Sheffield United and Brighton in the league but in terms of underlying metrics there isn’t much between them. Brighton take on average 3 more shots per game but concede 1 more than Sheffield United. Dig a little deeper and add shot locations and Brighton have a -3 expetced goal differential this season; whilst Sheffield United are on 0; again there is little to seperate them.

In terms of current form there isn’t much between them; although the Blades have had the much harder schedule. Home advantage obviosuly affects the odds but I think league position is too heavily factored in.

In terms of expected goals; Brighton haven’t been outpointed in their last 8 games in fact you have to go back to 21 December when they were comfortably beaten by of all people Sheffield United.

Granted game by game expected goal differential is overly simplistic but it highlights the trend that Brighton have been competitive in all their (close) matches of late. A bit of luck would have turned draws into wins and at 10/3 i’m banking on luck turning in their and out favour.

1pt Brighton to win 10/3 with Betfair
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Odds correct at time of publishing: 08:26 21st Feb, 2020 but subject to change