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19th Sep 2015 | Premier League

Sanchez Fulcrum Of Attack

Sanchez Fulcrum Of Attacking Verve

Alexis Sanchez scored 16 last season and should have at least 3 already given his shot volume and location.

Chelsea may have been boosted by a mid-week victory in the Champions League but I’m not sure that means anything in the context of the Premier League.

The champions languish near the foot of the table with just four points from five games and quite frankly that is all they deserve. Chelsea have conceded as many shots as they have taken and adjusting for location doesn’t make the reading any better.

LAST 5 MATCHES
chelsea expg
The Blues have conceded 12 goals so far this season and even though our expected goal model have them at 10.6, it’s still pretty bad.

With concerns around their defence the last thing they need is the visit of a rampant Arsenal.

The Gunners started the season badly with defeat against West Ham but they had more shots and the best of the chances, it was just one of those freak results.

Since then they’ve dominated Palace, Newcastle (helped by a red card) and Stoke whilst playing their part in an entertaining 0-0 against Liverpool.

LAST 5 MATCHES
arsenal expg

Arsenal are averaging 22.4 shots per game (a league high) and five goals is scant reward for their attacking verve. From that shot volume and location they should have scored at least 14 goals – they are gearing up to give someone a drubbing.

Fortunately for Jose Mourinho football is played in the real world, not on paper and he’s regularly outwitted Arsene Wenger in that respect.

An Arsenal win is tempting at 21/10 (Betfred) but the value lies in the goalscorer market in what is likely to be a high scoring game.

Alexis Sanchez is averaging 7 shots per90 and his shot locations are generally good. He’s yet to break his duck but an ‘average’ player would have scored at least 3 from the same location/shot volume.

The Chilean is certainly above average having scored 16 times last season and he is a cracking bet to open the scoring at 7/1 (Ladbrokes) with money back as a free bet if both teams score.

Chelsea v Arsenal Money Back Ladbrokes
If both teams score in the Chelsea v Arsenal match Ladbrokes will refund losing bets up to £/€25 as free bets.

1pt Alexis Sanchez to score first 7/1 with Ladbrokes
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Odds correct at time of publishing: 09:31 19th Sep, 2015 but subject to change

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