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21st Nov 2015 | Premier League

Remi Appease

Everton v Aston Villa Tips: Villa/Draw Double Chance

The league table suggests there is a bigger gap between the teams than there is in reality.

On paper, the Everton v Aston Villa game looks a good opportunity for a home win – that is how the bookmakers have priced it up. However, at this relatively early stage in the season the table can lie.

Everton aren’t as good as results suggest whilst Aston Villa aren’t as bad.


When it comes to goal difference Everton are 8th in the table and Villa 18th; nothing hugely surprising there but when you look at expected goal difference, everything changes.

Everton are 11th in the table in expected goal difference (they have been outperforming their shot data this season) whilst Aston Villa are 16th suggesting they have been perhaps a bit unlucky.

Suddenly the gap between the teams doesn’t seem so great, especially if you consider Aston Villa are buoyed by their new manager and a draw against Man City in their last game.

Both the Villa win and draw prices are big and therefore the best bet is to play Villa/draw in the double chance market 6/4 (Coral).

1pt Double Chance: Villa/Draw 6/4 with Coral
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Odds correct at time of publishing: 04:09 21st Nov, 2015 but subject to change

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