Premier League Outright Top Scorer Tip: Diego Costa

The Premier League top goalscorer market holds fond memories for Betting Bias having picked out Robin Van Persie in 2012-13, Charlie Austin as an 100/1 each-way winner in 2014-15 and Harry Kane at 14/1 last time around.

This season the competition looks fierce with Aguero already nothing longer than 10/3 - but his injury record must always be a concern. Ibrahimovic looks good at 7/1 but age and settling in a new country create some risk for the price.

I have doubts that Kane (8/1) can hit such lofty heights again if the summer with England takes any lasting psychological toll. While Lukaku (16/1) strikes me as someone who may have peaked last term, and he tailed off at that.

Instead at a best price of 20/1 (Paddy Power) we’re backing the mercurial and controversial Diego Costa.

The Spaniard top scored in La Liga in 2013-14 before firing 20 in 26 top flight outings in his first campaign in London.

Last season was less good, thus the price, but a run of 12 goals in the final 20 matches from Boxing Day onwards suggested it was just a blip when the whole club where struggling.

Now Chelsea have no European distractions it’s conceivable that the 27-year-old will play plenty of games if we can just avoid injuries and suspensions.

That’s our acknowledged risk but Conte is likely to get the best out of his star striker and if he does expect to see his odds crash quickly.

*Back Costa for top scorer with Paddy Power and get a £2 free bet every time he scores. Minimum stake is £25. Terms and conditions apply. Click link above for more details.