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20th Mar 2015 | Premier League

New Villa Built On Sturdy Foundations

villa win to nil

Villa are a team transformed under Tim Sherwood but the defensive improvements have gone unnoticed.

Confidence. If you could bottle it you’d be a millionaire and it seems Tim Sherwood has the keys to the factory.

Since taking over on 14 February his team have won four from six in all competitions and the transformation is startling.

Sherwood has been credited with injecting attacking verve into a misfiring side but his work on the defence deserves recognition; his team have only conceded four goals in that six game spell.

Although we are working with a small sample size the impact is noticeable in the underlying numbers.

Total Shot Ratio (shots for minus shots against)
League games under Paul Lambert: -3.12
League games under Tim Sherwood: 1.75

There has been a swing of almost five shots under the new management, with Villa now out-shooting their opponents.

It should be noted that Tim Sherwood has benefited from a kind fixture list but his team are conceding 3.44 shots fewer per game.

In a roundabout way that brings us to our bet. Swansea are aimlessly drifting in mid-table and they look unlikely to get anything from Villa Park.

The Swans have been out-shot in all but three of their away games this season and they average a paltry nine shots per game if you ignore the crazy outlier that was the game at Loftus Road.

An Aston Villa win looks likely but the bookmakers have underrated their parsimonious defence and a Villa win to nil is the value at 3/1 (BetVictor).

1pt Aston Villa win to nil 3/1 with BetVictor
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Odds correct at time of publishing: 15:39 20th Mar, 2015 but subject to change

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