25th Nov 2016 | Premier League
Leicester v Middlesbrough Preview
Leicester are in trouble and a low total shot volume, from poor locations with a conversion% waiting to regress is a bad combination.
Only a point separates Leicester and Middlesbrough and at some stage we have to ignore the narrative that pits the Champions up against a newly promoted side. The problem is Leicester are playing like a bottom half team and their underlying numbers are poor.
Leicester are only 16th in shots per game (10.6) not much better than the visitors Middlesbrough in 18th (9.2). The bigger problem is that Leicester are running hot on goal conversion despite the poor numbers.
So far this season 47% of their shots are from outside the box and their overall conversion % (all shots into goals) is unsustainably high – a triple whammy of bad news. Low shot volume, poor locations and a conversion % ready to regress spell trouble.
Middlesbrough are what they are. A newly promoted team that would be happy to finish 17th at the end of the season. They’ve got a chance of achieving this goal and a win at Leicester is over priced at 18/5.
Odds correct at time of publishing: 04:09 25th Nov, 2016 but subject to change
