Hull Defence To Spring A Leak

Both Burnley and Hull have managed to get early points on the board this season but they’ve had to fight extreme adversity.

In three games Hull have conceded a whopping 72 shots and Burnley a not much better 65. Some context needs to be added, the strength of opposition and the small sample size are two red flags however there is another important factor at play.

Hull have been in the lead for only 45 minutes this season, whereas Burnley have led for 88 minutes; all against Liverpool. We know from historical data that teams in the lead concede more shots (because they become more defensive) and therefore Burnley’s shot concession number looks comparatively much better than Hull’s.

This is a roundabout way of saying that Hull haven’t been particularly good despite winning their first two games and at some stage their poor underlying numbers will catch up with them. Burnley aren’t much better themselves, but they are slightly better and with home advantage should be backed at 13/8.