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24th Oct 2014 | Premier League

Hot Shot Strikers

We analyse the hot strikers to see whether their goalscoring rates are sustainable and if they are good value in the anytime goalscorer market.

At the start of the month we analysed players who were having plenty of shots but not scoring and whether they were value bets. Now lets look at the opposite end of the spectrum, the prolific goalscorers.

We have analysed the shot data of the current top-10 goalscorers in the Premier League and calculated the ‘expected’ number of goals (ExpG) they would have scored. This is based on the quantity and location of shots they have taken.

Top 10 Premier League Scorers
hot shot strikers
Key
Per90s = Total minutes played / 90
Inside = Shot inside penalty box
Outside = Shot outside penalty box
ExpG = Expected goals
Exp Odds = Forecast anytime odds
Diff = Difference between forecast & actual odds

Looking down the table there are a couple of under/over valued players in the market that are worth further investigation.

Super Sergio Aguero
Model Recommends: Aguero to score anytime at 17/20 (Ladbrokes)

The Argentine’s tally of 9 goals in 8 matches sounds like a purple patch, an unsustainable run of form but the numbers suggest he’s not deviating massively from the mean.

Aguero is averaging 6.1 shots per90, bettered only by Mario Balotelli’s 6.3 shots per90. Where he differs from the Italian is the quality of his strikes.

Balotelli takes 3.3 shots per90 outside of the box, Aguero is far less speculative with only 1 shot per90 coming from outside the area.

It stands to reason the City striker is more likely to score because he shoots from better positions. This is even before you delve into the more subjective discussion of who is the more natural finisher.

If Sergio Aguero keeps up these shot numbers and there’s no reason they should dip other than injury, the 26-year-old could be on for a record breaking season.

Leicester to Ulloa Their Expectations
With five goals in eight games, Leonardo Ulloa has seamlessly made the transition from Championship to Premier League football. However, from a statistical point of view he looks like a regression waiting to happen.

In simple terms Ulloa doesn’t take enough shots (1.6 per 90) to continue his current goalscoring rate, even if they come from good locations.

It is a similar story for Steven Naismith. The Everton striker is in effect a converted midfielder and that is apparent in his shot statistics. The Scotland international manages only 1.7 shots per90 and 0.4 of those are from outside the area.

Roberto Martinez will be hoping Romelu Lukaku rediscovers his touch because Naismith isn’t a long term solution to goalscoring problems.

Sergio Aguero to score anytime 17/20 with Ladbrokes
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Odds correct at time of publishing: 09:10 24th Oct, 2014 but subject to change

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