Fortune Favours The LVG

Luck is a dirty word in sports, often a catch-all term for results we don’t understand. Gary Neville suggested United ‘got away with murder’ after their win at Southampton but can we measure how lucky they actually were?

By using our goal expectation model, where we assign a goal probability for every shot taken, we can calculate the probability of United winning against Southampton.  We operate on the premise that both are ‘average’ chance converting Premier League teams.

United mustered just three shots compared to Southampton’s 15. With that shot data, our goal expectation model gave United a 7% chance of winning, the 2-1 scoreline was even less likely at 3%.

To put that into context here are the five most unexpected victories in the league this season, using shot data as our input:

Burnley beating Stoke: 4% chance
Leicester beating Stoke: 6%
Man Utd beating Southampton: 7%
Aston Villa beating Liverpool: 8%
Aston Villa beating Palace: 9%

It is interesting to note Aston Villa and Stoke have been on opposite sides of some ‘freak’ results but United’s win sits comfortably in the middle.

Were United due some good luck?

If we follow the same methodology and sum all of United’s expected results (e.g. 3% x 3pts + draw probability); we have them at an expected points total of 23.6 versus an actual 28.

This would imply United have enjoyed a large slice of luck this season.

It is worth noting that our fundamentals are based on average conversion rates. With Van Persie and Rooney at Van Gaal’s disposal you’d expect them to outperform the average but a deviation of 4.4pts is somewhat fortuitous.