22nd May 2015 | Premier League
Distracted Villa Are Vulnerable
FA Cup underdogs have a history of under-performing in the last league game of the season.
Aston Villa players can be forgiven if they appear a little preoccupied on Sunday. With their Premier League status assured, focus shifts to the FA Cup final and that must prey on the mind.
For many players it will be the highlight of their careers and the last thing theywant is to pick up an injury or suspension in a meaningless league game.
Aston Villa travel to Wembley as the underdogs and that will affect their performance against Burnley on Sunday.
FA Cup Finalists Final League Game
If you look at the record of the FA Cup underdogs in their last game of the season, only Wigan avoided defeat.
On average the ‘underdog’ has won 0.2pts in their last game of the season compared to an expected 1.2pts, if you took their season’s average as the benchmark.
If this pattern continues, Burnley could be cracking value to beat a distracted Villa at 11/4 (Bet365).
Odds correct at time of publishing: 11:46 22nd May, 2015 but subject to change
