Premier League Spotlight: Liverpool v Tottenham

When you’re identified as a big club in English football, from a betting perspective it seems you will rarely be underestimated. But at some point stature must surely change based on the bare results. The question is, do the bookies base their odds on reputation too much?

Let’s start by looking at Liverpool. They are currently priced as 3/1 (BetVictor) shots to qualify for the Champions League this season whereas Tottenham are longer at 10/3 (Bet365) for a lucrative top four finish.

So why is this? Neither team has made a terrific start to the season, they have one point apiece, but the bookies clearly aren’t basing this on two matches anyway. Generally speaking, this is all about the perception that the cream will rise to the top and Liverpool are still regarded as the bigger, and therefore better club.

But Tottenham have finished above Liverpool for the past three seasons.

2009-10: Spurs 4th. Liverpool 7th
2010-11: Spurs 5th. Liverpool 6th
2011-12: Spurs 4th. Liverpool 8th.

The point differential between the sides was 7 points in 2009-10, 4 points in 2010-11 and a massive 17 points in 2011-12. In total, Tottenham have been 28 points better than the Reds over three years, or 114 matches. That doesn’t like a fluke or short-term variation.

Of course, some will argue that Brendan Rodgers is a better prospect than Andre-Villas Boas as both teams begin new eras under fresh management. But this is very subjective.  It would also seem that Spurs are well-positioned to at least rival the Merseysiders in terms of squad strengthening over the remainder of the season, be it right now or in January.

Basically, if the bookies deal in cold hard facts then it’s hard to dispute that all the value where these two are concerned comes at White Hart Lane.