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20th Mar 2012 | Football

Manchester City v Chelsea Tip

Mancini needs a win

The games between the top sides have always produced goals this season. There should be more here but they could cancel each other out.

Manchester City have won 19 consecutive Premier League home matches; if they can beat Chelsea on Wednesday night then they can set an all-time record for that competition. Some people may look at that sequence and gladly take the 20/21 (BetVictor) on yet another home win. But the value looks more dubious in the game’s full context.

The Blues from south-west London have seemingly been given a real lift by Roberto Di Matteo replacing Andre Villas-Boas. A 2-0 FA victory at Birmingham and a 1-0 league triumph over Stoke were workmanlike, but the thrilling 4-1 comeback success against Napoli in the Champions League really changed the mood inside the camp. Now, even Fernando Torres is back among the goals after bagging a brace against Leicester in the Cup on Sunday.

Furthermore, the pressure on Mancini’s men to take the three points is immense. Having led the pack for so long they now find themselves running out at the Etihad four points behind their arch-rivals. This is a crucial game-in-hand.

Some will weigh all this up and be seduced by the 10/3 Boylesports on offer for an away win. But City are a different proposition on their patch to the one that keeps slipping up on the road, most recently at Swansea. I can’t help thinking that the most likely outcome is the draw at 13/5 with Skybet.

But I also believe we can confidently refine this bet further by effectively ruling out the goalless draw. The hosts have scored 42 times in 14 games at home in the league. Chelsea are flying after scoring nine in their last two outings. The score draw therefore looks like our top value option at best odds of 4/1 with StanJames.

Odds correct at time of publishing: 10:01 20th Mar, 2012 but subject to change

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