18th Dec 2016 | Premier League
Man City v Arsenal Preview
In terms of state adjusted shots, City hold the edge over Arsenal but their price is on the drift because of a few dubious results.
There’s been plenty of Pep bashing in the media recently but a couple of blips don’t disguise the fact City are a strong team – remember them beating Barcelona?
The point I’m trying to make is you can pick any result to use as evidence to fit the pro/anti Guardiola narrative you desire. When betting it’s important to look at the bigger picture.
City are taking more shots than Arsenal (17.7 v 15.4 when adjusted by game state) and conceding fewer (8.8 vs 10.2). It’s worth nothing that in terms of shot locations Arsenal are doing slightly better, especially offensively but the underlying numbers favour City.
Arsenal’s run of good results is fuelled by a red-hot scoring% (I’m looking at you Alexis Sanchez) but the league paints a slightly false impression.
City have home advantage and a couple of months back you couldn’t imagine backing Guardiola’s men to win at home at odds-against. We must snap up the 5/4.
Odds correct at time of publishing: 05:35 18th Dec, 2016 but subject to change
