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13th Dec 2014 | Premier League

Foxes Looking For Scraps

Leicester are due a change in luck and they’re not scared of taking on the big boys at home.

Leicester are without a win in ten matches; Man City have won their last six in all competitions. Statistics like that make betting look easy but the best way to make money in the long-term going is to against the crowd.

A Leicester win it is.

The problem with results is they don’t tell the whole picture.  Leicester have actually played pretty well at home recently. In their last four matches they’ve had 62 shots whilst conceding only 40; yet only have 2 points for their efforts.

A combination of poor finishing and needless red cards has seen them toss away games they should have at least drawn; the match against Liverpool is the perfect example.

Eventually their luck will turn and with Leonardo Ulloa back amongst the goals, they might convert their chances.

There is not much to add about Man City. They are one of the strongest teams in the league but everyone has their off day and with Sergio Aguero absent they are shorn of their best player.

A Leicester win is overpriced at 6/1 (Bet365) but we can improve those odds with some simple logic.

Man City have scored in every away game this season, therefore if Leicester are to win they are going to have to score twice.

I cannot see the Foxes scoring three, let alone replicating the win against United, therefore a 2-1 win is the only realistic option.

Chances are Leicester will lose and we look silly but the value in the market is backing a 2-1 home win at enticing odds of 20/1 (Bet365).

Bore Draw Cash Back - Bet365
Have a pre-match Correct Score, Half-Time/Full-Time or Scorecast bet on any football match and if the game finishes 0-0, Bet365 will refund all losing bets on these markets.·

Odds correct at time of publishing: 02:21 13th Dec, 2014 but subject to change

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