Spain v Portugal Tip

When you’ve been a massively successful side then unconvincing performances with satisfying outcomes are often still viewed favourably. As the cliche goes, ‘It’s a sign of a good team that wins even when it’s not at its best.’ Of course, it could also be a sign of a team that isn’t quite as good as it used to be.

It’s a risky assessment to make just before the first semi-final, but Spain may just fall into the latter category. It’s undeniable that they still dominate possession against everyone they play, but a lack of killer instinct and the odd defensive frailty is not to their credit.

So far Vicente Del Bosque’s class of 2012 have only really looked ferocious against Ireland. Versus France they were pretty comfortable, but Italy and Croatia certainly held their own against the champions.

Portugal should be their toughest challenge yet, and one they may not overcome. Paulo Bento’s men have grown in this tournament after starting over-cautiously against the Germans. As I’ve said before, even in that Group B opener they were mightily unfortunate to lose 1-0 having struck the woodwork twice.

Since then, three wins against Denmark, Netherlands and the Czech Republic have all come with convincing attacking displays. Had they not had the misfortune to thump bar or post six times in all - the most of any team in the tournament - then many people would be rating the 2004 finalists very highly indeed.

I think Portugal will pull off a shock and make the 2012 final as well. They are a best price 7/2 (WilliamHill) to win in 90 minutes and that strikes me as undeniable value.

For further vindication of this bet consider the following. Last time these sides met was in November 2010 and Portugal won 4-0. Although it was a friendly, Spain included 10 players who started the World Cup final, with David Silva thrown in. Hardly under-strength. I’m sure it will be nothing like that this time but a marker was certainly put down regardless.

Ultimately of course it could be Ronaldo who makes the difference on the night. A player without equal in this tournament, Paul Bento has certainly found a way of getting the most out of his prize asset. The Real Madrid star got the better of Xavi and Iniesta in La Liga and he could do so again here.