Spain v Italy Tip

Probably the most glamorous encounter of the group stages pits the defending champions against an Italian outfit who look in some disarray.

Spain have won 14 competitive fixtures in a row and I fully expect them to extend that sequence on Sunday. However, the Italians will surely revert to their default setting and defend for their lives. Six of the last nine clashes between these two have been 0-0 at half-time and it could easily happen again.

The quality of La Roja will surely tell in the end though so I’m backing ‘Draw-Spain’ in the half time/full time market at best odds of 15/4 (BetVictor).

The Azzurri have lost their last two games prior to Euro 2012 after being level at the break. On 1 June it was Russia who scampered to a 3-0 victory and before that the USA grabbed a second half winner in a match that ended 0-1. Italy have lost their last three matches in total, two at home, without scoring a goal.

There will be those that say that you shouldn’t read too much into friendlies, particularly since Italy qualified with defensive impunity. There is some truth in that, but I’m only encouraged to think they can hold out against Spanish tiki-taka football for so long.

Vicente Del Bosque’s champions only beat China in their final warm-up game after a late David Silva strike settled a tight encounter. With David Villa out injured, the less established strikers are taking some time to get into their stride. It’s just another reason why Spain may have to get this opening match won in the second half. But it would certainly be a major surprise to see the holders relinquish a lead if it is acquired.