Republic of Ireland v Croatia

Croatia are strongly fancied to beat Ireland on Sunday evening but it’s not very clear why they are 11/8 (Coral) favourites.

The only conclusion I can reach is that the odds are based on FIFA rankings; Slaven Bilic’s side come in at number eight, that’s 10 places higher than Trapattoni’s hopefuls. But do we really want to base our predictions on a scoring system that puts England at fifth best in the world - sandwiched between Brazil and Argentina?

If we look instead at recent results then I see no reason not to back Ireland to win here at a best price of 13/5 (WilliamHill). Under ‘Trap,’ the Boys in green are coming into the tournament on a 14-match unbeaten run. They have kept 11 clean sheets in that stretch and haven’t lost a single competitive game under their Italian boss outside of the Republic.

There was no shame in finishing runners-up to Russia in qualifying; a fine 0-0 draw in Moscow was a highlight of the campaign. Croatia, on the other hand, take fewer plaudits for finishing behind Greece after a defeat in Athens as well as in Georgia. Bilic’s boys come into the Euros with only one win in their last four - a run that included a 3-1 home defeat to Sweden earlier this year.

Croatia are highly ranked only on account of their excellent qualification record since the turn of the century. But they have passed the group stages just once in the four tournaments they have played since then.

This tells me that a well-drilled, well-supported Irish team are capable of sneaking a low-scoring victory to give them hope in Group C. We have the odds to justify the risk of backing the underdog.