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6th Jun 2012 | Euro 2012

Poland v Greece Tip

We get under way in Poland on Friday.

Too much is made of home advantage and Greece aren't as bad as many think.

Poland kick-off Euro 2012 on Friday night as evens (Betfred) favourites to beat outsiders Greece. The widely held view is that home advantage will make all the difference between two fairly ordinary sides. But a closer look at the record of host nations in major tournaments would suggest that they don’t raise their games too effectively in reality.

In the last World Cup, South Africa only won a match when the pressure was essentially off. Bafana Bafana had a draw and a loss in their first two games ensuring they would fail to qualify for the second round.

In European Championships the trend of mediocrity from mediocre hosts is well-established. In 2008 the Swiss finished bottom of their group after losing their first two fixtures while Austria departed with just 1 point from Group B.

I would discount Portugal in 2004 as they were a side full of star players who were capable of making the final wherever the event was staged. But back in 2000 we again saw a modest host, this time Belgium, lose two of three matches.

Clearly there is a trend that implies we shouldn’t expect miracles of Poland - the lowest rank team in the tournament (62nd). Furthermore, I don’t think Greece are neccessarily the whipping boys that so many are assuming. They have lost only once (in a friendly) in the first 20 matches under coach Fernando Santos and qualified ahead of Croatia.

I think an opening match draw is on the cards here at 23/10 with Skybet. But we can improve our value by taking on a correct score bet. The Poles have kept four clean sheets in a row in friendlies while the Greeks conceded only five in 10 qualifying matches.

It looks like being tight and nervy but it’s a great chance to take advantage of Bet365’s ‘Bore Draw Money Back’ offer. Back the 11/2 on the game ending 1-1 with the insurance of your money back if its ends 0-0.

* Have a pre-match bet on any Euro 2012 game with Bet365 and if it ends 0-0 they will refund your losing stake on all the following markets: First goalscorer, Last goalscorer, Anytime goalscorer, Half time - Full time, Correct Score and all Scorecasts.

Odds correct at time of publishing: 16:58 6th Jun, 2012 but subject to change

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