Germany v Greece: First Goalscorer Tip

While Mario Gomez is regarded as very much the main man for Germany, we should never under-estimate his strike partner in crime - Lukas Podolski. Arsenal’s new recruit is generally regarded by the bookies as only half as likely to score but the figures simply don’t support this.

Now with 44 goals in 100 games for Germany, Podolski’s strike-rate is nearly identical to Gomez’s (25 in 55), except that he has done it for a much longer period.

The 27-year-old became the youngest European player to ever reach a century of caps against Denmark and he celebrated by opening the scoring. He is a proven big tournament player. He found the net three times in the 2006 World Cup, three times in Euro 2008 and once against England in the 2010 World Cup.

Podolski’s 18 goals in 31 appearances for FC Koln last season made it his best scoring return for a club side since 2004-05. Everything would indicate he is in prime form and a great option for first goalscorer against Greece at 6/1 with PaddyPower.

Given that this is twice the price of Gomez in the same market (3/1), it looks like a bargain. But it gets better. Paddy will refund all losing first goalscorer bets if Mario Gomez breaks the deadlock. This reduces our risk considerably and makes it worth losing a half point given that best price on Podolski is 13/2 (WilliamHill).