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6th Jun 2012 | Euro 2012

Euro 2012 Top Goalscorer Tip: Roman Shirokov

Top scoring Russian in this season’s Champions League and scored two in the recent friendly win over Italy.

In a truncated tournament, the leading goalscorer market is often very tight. No player has scored more than five goals at the European Championships since 1984. From an each-way perspective, with bookmakers paying ¼ odds for the top-4, three goals would have been enough to qualify for a payout in each of the last four tournaments.

That means almost any player can go on a little goalscoring spurt and win the each-way part of the bet. Focusing on this angle there is value further down the market and at 100/1 (Paddy Power), Russian midfielder Roman Shirokov grabs my attention.

Firstly, he is in good form, bagging two goals in Russia’s recent friendly victory over Italy. That brings his international tally to a respectable 6 goals in 22 appearances.

With five goals, he was also the top scoring Russian in the Champions League this season. His goals came at an average of one every 132 minutes, a similar strike rate to Zlatan Ibrahimovic (144min), Robin Van Persie (123min), and Karim Benzema (109min).

A certain starter at the Euros, the 30-year-old midfielder should feature in all of Russia’s games. Good news considering Group A is the weakest of the four groups.

Dick Advocaat’s side relies on attacking midfielders to find the net, with striker Aleksandr Kerzhakov used to link play rather than act as a poacher. This should afford Shirokov plenty of goal scoring opportunities.

At 100/1 (Paddy Power), we probably need only three goals to land a healthy each-way payout with anything else a bonus.

0.5pt Golden Boot e/w: Roman Shirokov 100/1 (antepost) with Paddypower
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Odds correct at time of publishing: 12:01 6th Jun, 2012 but subject to change

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