Euro 2012: Highest Scoring Quarter-Final Tip

As we reach the latter stages of Euro 2012 the bookmakers have come up with a range of new betting angles specifically for the quarter-finals. We are invited to choose which of the four fixtures will be the highest scoring and I feel we can narrow down our options to find some value.

First of all, I disagree with the strong favourite in this market; Germany v Greece is expected to yield the most goals at best odds of 21/10 (Sportingbet). This is presumably based on the assumption that Germany will thump the outsiders. The evidence for this is pretty unconvincing.

Joachim Lowe’s team have shown little interest in going for big wins up till now having taken their foot off the accelerator once in front. Furthermore, when will the bookmakers stop treating Greece like pathetic whipping boys? They beat Russia to progress and have only ever suffered one competitive defeat under boss Fernando Santos. I expect Germany to progress, but it shouldn’t be a rout.

I also think we can probably rule out England v Italy (7/1 PaddyPower) as the highest scoring quarter-final. England’s style of play under Hodgson is almost more Italian than the Italians and these two could be feeling each other out tentatively for quite a while.

This leaves us with Czech Republic v Portugal (9/2 PaddyPower) and Spain v France (6/1 PaddyPower) as our primary contenders to see a few goals. Portugal are looking very lively but Michal Bilek may be slightly reticent about sending out his team to attack after the Czechs were hammered 4-1 by Russia at the start of the tournament.

All things considered I see Spain v France as the best value selection at the prices offered. These were the two teams who had the most shots on target in the group stages; Spain averaged 13 per game, the French had 12 per match.

Realistically, there are two ways we could win this bet. Option one is that France play as badly as they did against Sweden and the defending champions thrash them in a similar fashion as they did to Ireland. Option two is that Laurent Blanc’s team re-group after their debacle in their last group match and give Spain a run for their money.

Les Bleus were unbeaten in a long time before Tuesday and that owed much to the attacking threat led by Karim Benzema. The Real Madrid star has had 12 shots on target so far without finding the net and if he starts firing then this could be a high-scoring thriller on Saturday. At best odds of 6/1 with PaddyPower, here’s hoping.