Euro 2012 Final: Scoreline Tip

The bookies have 1-0 Spain (5/1 Betfred) as the most likely scoreline tonight with the 0-0 (6/1 Ladbrokes) and 1-1 (6/1 BetVictor) draws coming next. But just as likely, and at the longest odds we have Italy to win 1-0 at odds of 17/2 with PaddyPower. The Irish firm not only give us the best price, but also the promise of our money back on a losing bet if Mario Balotelli scores the last goal.

Spain have kept a remarkable nine consecutive clean sheets in knockout matches at major tournaments. But Italy could be the outfit to end that sequence after 97 attempts on goal, more than any other side at Euro 2012.

The Azzurri did find the net against La Roja in the group stages and had six shots on target against the champions. That accounts for 50% of the shots on target faced by Spain in the whole tournament. Clearly, Prandelli’s men are liable to give Iker Casillas a busier night than he has grown accustomed to. Lest we forget that many people thought Germany would shut-out these same opponents only a few days ago.

So they may score, but can Italy keep a clean sheet? Having denied England for 120 minutes and Germany for 90, they will think so. Furthermore, nobody conceded fewer in qualification and the defence should be close to full-strength tonight. Ignazio Abate is expected to return at right-back having missed the semi-final.

Italy have every reason to be confident. Excluding their shoot-out defeat in 2008, they haven’t lost a competitive fixture against Spain since 1920. A great historical record may have provided extra inspiration against the English and Germans, and it can do so again tonight.

* If Mario Balotelli scores last, PaddyPower will refund all losing First Goalscorer, Last Goalscorer, Correct Score and Scorecast singles on the match, up to £100.