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21st Jun 2012 | Euro 2012

Czech Republic v Portugal: Winning Margin Tip

Portugal: Bound for the semis?

The Portuguese grew into a formidable attacking unit as Group B progressed. With Ronaldo on top form they will have too much for the Czechs.

I was very impressed with Portugal in Group B and have reached the conclusion that they will take some stopping now that we’ve entered the knockout phase of Euro 2012. It’s hard to know what to make of a Czech Republic side who lost their opener 4-1 to Russia, before recovering to top Group A against the odds.

Let’s start by taking a closer look at Paulo Bento’s charges. They were probably guilty of being over-cautious in their first match against Germany but they were still ultimately unlucky to lose 1-0 to the current favourites. Pepe and Nani struck the woodwork and substitute Varela was only denied by a great late save by Neuer.

After that they showed more ambition in defeating Denmark 3-2 and Netherlands 2-1. There were some bad moments defensively but Portugal suddenly looked like one of the most potent attacking forces in the competition.

Ronaldo is the spearhead with nearly half of their 28 attempts on target so far but they are no one-man-team. The three goals against the Danes came from Pepe, Postiga and Varela, while Nani will always ensure there’s a threat down the right wing.

They really looked like a team reaching a new level against Netherlands and I don’t think that the Czechs can handle that if it’s repeated. Although it was impressive to win against Greece and Poland, one can’t help but think that they aren’t ready for this step-up in quality.

Michal Bilek’s men were soundly dismantled by Russia so Ronaldo and co on top form is a daunting prospect. To compound matters, they look set to be without their influential captain Rosicky for this last eight match. “Tomas will certainly not play from the beginning,” said Czech team manager Vladimir Smicer. With goalkeeper Cech also having a distinctly mediocre tournament up till now, I think this is the end of the road for the 1996 finalists.

I don’t know if Bento’s side have a first clean sheet in them which makes a scoreline bet trickier. However, I do think they can win with something to spare in the end. A Portugal win by a 2-goal margin is therefore my choice at best odds of 5/1 with Ladbrokes.

1pt Portugal to win by 2 goals 5/1 with Ladbrokes
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Odds correct at time of publishing: 12:48 21st Jun, 2012 but subject to change