Czech Republic v Poland Tip

The final round-robin matches begin on Saturday with Group A intriguingly poised. Poland will need to win against Czech Republic to progress, while the Czechs will only need, in all likelihood, a draw. It would be surprising if that didn’t lead to a defensive mindset from Michal Bilek’s team.

One of the quirky features of the tournament up till now is that many games are changing after half-time. Starting on Tuesday this is what happened in five encounters in a row.

-Greece won the second half against the Czechs after trailing 2-0.
-Poland pegged back Russia after trailing 1-0.
-Denmark came from 2-0 down to 2-2 against Portugal, only losing it late.
-Netherlands won the second half against Germany after trailing 2-0.
-Croatia pegged back Italy after trailing 1-0.

Only Spain’s demolition of Ireland broke the trend, but Euro 2012 fixtures are generally seeing lots of ebb and flow. Maybe the heat is playing a factor, or there are a lot of evenly matched teams. Regardless, not many teams are sustaining dominance for the full 90 minutes.

This trend leads me to think there’s been plenty of value flying around in the half time - full time market. As we now reach the decisive group matches, late developments seem ever more likely.

In this game, I like the look of half time: draw - full time: Poland at best odds of 5/1 with Coral. The Czechs will start with something to defend, knowing that a draw will almost certainly see them through. I can’t see them being adventurous and they will get numbers behind the ball.

This could easily see us through to a half-time stalemate. But the co-hosts showed against Russia that they can come on strongly in the second half with the fans behind them. In contrast, Czech Republic finished pretty poorly against Russia and lost the second period to Greece as well.

More of the same and we could be celebrating Poland’s progress to the quarter finals along with the natives.