3rd Nov 2014 | Champions League
Devastating Madrid Re-Write Goal Expectations
Carlo Ancelotti's superstars should be making the bookmakers re-evaluate what a high-scoring game really is when they're involved.
It’s hard to find a great deal of value at the Bernabeu on Tuesday night unless you want to back Liverpool to pull off a major shock. Arguably, the Reds don’t even really represent value at 12/1 (Boylesports) given the magnitude of their challenge.
However, Brendan Rodgers’ boys might be able to contribute towards a successful tip if we back over 4.5 goals in the match at best odds of 21/10 with Coral.
If we look at Real Madrid’s last 11 results, dating back to mid-September, this looks very reasonable. Starting with the most recent:
Granada 0-4 Real
UD Cornella 1-4 Real
Real 3-1 Barcelona
Liverpool 0-3 Real
Levante 0-5 Real
Real 5-0 Bilbao
Ludogorets 1-2 Real
Villarreal 0-2 Real
Real 5-1 Elche
Deportivo 2-8 Real
Real 5-1 Basel
That’s 11 consecutive victories for Los Blancos with a grand total of 53 goals coming at an average of 4.82 per game. This would have been a winning tip for us on 6 out of 11 occasions which suggests this should be an odds-on selection rather than 21/10.
Furthermore, despite their recent shortcomings, Liverpool are still more likely to contribute to a high-scoring match than many others on that list of recent Madrid conquests.
Odds correct at time of publishing: 19:54 3rd Nov, 2014 but subject to change
