Crystal Palace v Southampton Preview

It’s sometimes difficult to feel sorry for Alan Pardew given his public persona but he’s been on the end of some brutal results of late. Palace have lost six in a row and speculation about the manager’s position is growing ever louder.

Pardew needs a result this weekend but I hope he’s given a chance to turn things around because the underlying numbers are sound.

In terms of expected goal difference per game (0.05) they are ninth on my game state adjusted metrics with Southampton ahead of them (0.51) in seventh. The visitors are the better team in better form but if Palace could cut out the late goals things wouldn’t look so dire.

The main worry for Alan Pardew is that Southampton are scoring fewer goals than expected and eventually they will start to convert their chances, especially with Charlie Austin in the side.

Home advantage could be crucial and at 5/2, Palace are a big price to stop the rot in front of impassioned home support.