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2nd May 2013 | Football

Chelsea v Basel Tip

European matches at Stamford Bridge this season have averaged 4.33 goals per fixture.

Basel’s ambitious approach to away games in Europe first came to my attention in last season’s Champions League. In the group stages they drew 3-3 at Old Trafford, 1-1 at Benfica and then beat Otelul Galati 3-2 to enable progress to the knockout stages.

Fast forward 12 months or so and the attacking intent of Murat Yakin’s side was evidenced again when Basel claimed a fully merited 2-2 draw at White Hart Lane. That put the Swiss into the semi-finals of the Europa League and now they head to Stamford Bridge trailing 2-1 from the first leg with Chelsea. The visitors have it all to do, but expect them to go for it.

Of concern for Rafa Benitez would be that the outgoing European champions have not kept a clean sheet in their last 11 continental matches. I would expect Basel to extend that sequence in what should be an open contest, regardless of the final outcome.

The bet that attracts me here is over 3.5 goals in the match at best odds of 7/4 with StanJames. This would have been a winning wager in five out of six of Chelsea’s European home games so far in 2012-13.

Chelsea 2-2 Juventus
Chelsea 3-2 Shakhtar
Chelsea 6-1 Nordsjaelland
Chelsea 1-1 Sparta Prague
Chelsea 3-1 Steaua Buch’t
Chelsea 3-1 Rubin Kazan

With Basel unlikely to go out with a whimper, a few goals at the Bridge looks highly probable on Thursday night.

Odds correct at time of publishing: 11:21 2nd May, 2013 but subject to change

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