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16th Sep 2016 | Premier League

Chelsea Continue Strong Start

Chelsea v Liverpool Tips: Chelsea Continue Strong Start

Taking into account game state, Chelsea (+14) take more shots and concede fewer than Liverpool (+9.4) and should be nearer even money.

The Friday night kick-off pits together the two most trigger happy teams in the league. Chelsea average 19.8 shots per game, Liverpool 18 and both have scored nine goals so far.

You would therefore assume both attacks are evenly matched but the numbers deserve further investigation. Chelsea have only been behind for 12% of their games this season, Liverpool 29% and therefore Chelsea’s shot numbers get a negative game state skew. Teams one or two goals ahead shoot less than when drawing (and especially losing) the game.


If we adjust for game state Chelsea are averaging 20.1 shots per game and Liverpool 18.1, that is only a 0.2 shift towards Chelsea but in football betting where margins are tight that could make all the difference.

On the other side of the ball we see the big problem for Jurgen Klopp. Liverpool are conceding on average 8.7 shots per game (state adjusted) and Chelsea a meagre 6.1.

Add it all together and Antonio Conte’s team are taking more shots and conceding fewer than their visitors. Throw in home advantage and Chelsea are a big price to win at 13/10 when I make them nearer an even money shot. 

1pt Chelsea to win 13/10 with BetVictor
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Odds correct at time of publishing: 06:24 16th Sep, 2016 but subject to change

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