Gunners On The Ropes Keep Fighting

Barcelona are the best team in the world, probably by a distance, and Arsenal very clearly are not. Despite this, best odds of 15/2 (BetVictor) on both teams scoring and the second leg ending as a draw is still a bargain.

The primary reason why this represents a value bet is that Barcelona could be complacent. They effectively won the tie in London (2-0) and there’s a reason why they are best odds of 1/66 to qualify!

Secondly, Arsenal have an excellent track record of making a good fist of chasing lost causes. In the last three years they have reached the last 16 every time, lost their home leg, then been knocked out despite excellent second leg results on the road.

In 2013 they sneaked a 2-0 away over Bayern Munich and only just went out on away goals. In 2014 they drew 1-1 at the Allianz Arena even with Bayern aware of what had happened a year earlier. In 2015 they beat Monaco 2-0 away having lost 3-1 at the Emirates.

It’s becoming a very familiar narrative.

Barcelona are on a 37 match unbeaten run and you get the sense they can go through a few extra gears if needed, so they surely won’t lose. But the Gunners could just snatch a score draw given the match dynamic. We’ll use the ‘match result and both teams to score’ market to get the best price.