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12th Sep 2017 | Champions League

Champions League Outright Tip: Man City

Gained experience from past failures in knockout stages and this the strongest squad they've ever assembled for the Champions League. Oh and there's Pep.

The Champions League, the ‘best club football competition in the world’ or from an outright perspective the dullest. It’s seems that without past experience you cannot win the competition which is why the same names keep appearing.

These are the last ten winners of the Champions League and the stage they exited the competition in the five years prior to their victory.
2017 Real Madrid: W-SF-W-SF-SF
2016 Real Madrid: SF-W-SF-SF-SF
2015 Barcelona: QF-SF-SF-W-SF
2014 Real Madrid: SF-SF-SF-L16-L16
2013 Bayern Munich: F-L16-F-QF-DNQ
2012 Chelsea: QF-L16-QF-F-SF
2011 Barcelona: SF-W-SF-L16-W
2010 Inter: L16-L16-L16-QF-QF
2009 Barcelona: SF-L16-W-L16-DNQ
2008 Man United: SF-L32-L16-L16-QF
Most recent exit on the left.

The last ten winners reached the knockout stages of the competition at least four times in a row prior to winning the Champions League. If the trend continues we are left with a shortlist comprising:
Barcelona
Bayern Munich
Real Madrid
PSG
Man City
Atletico Madrid

Looking through that list there are three teams that standout from a value perspective. Real Madrid have won three of the last four editions and are bound to be thereabouts again at 4/1, the same can’t be said of a Barcelona team that looks on the downgrade.

PSG have splashed the cash but the bookmakers have reacted by making them second favourites - that ship has sailed.

Atletico Madrid could be a handy trading team at 33/1 with Betfair Sportsbook but it could be time for Man City to finally deliver on the biggest stage. Pep Guardiola was recruited ostensibly to win the Champions League and has been given the funds to reshape his squad exactly for this task.

Last year they made a mess of a crazy tie against Monaco, going out on away goals but the season before they got to the the semi-finals. On paper they are stronger than either campaign and Guardiola’s had a season to impart his message on the team. They’ve been gifted an easy group and at 12/1 (BetVictor) looks the best bet.

1pt Man City to win 12/1 with BetVictor
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Odds correct at time of publishing: 06:46 12th Sep, 2017 but subject to change