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15th Sep 2013 | Football

Champions League Outright Tip: Real Madrid

Carlo Ancelotti can galvanise one of the most talented squads in world football. Semi-finalists in the last three seasons.

The Champions League is billed as the premier club competition in the world but it has become a bit predictable. In the last twenty years only two teams have won from outside the big four leagues of England, Spain, Italy and Germany.

Experience is key as the same names keep cropping up in the latter stages of the tournament.

These are the last six winners of the Champions League and the stage they exited the competition in the five years prior to their victory.

2013 Bayern Munich: F-L16-F-QF-DNQ
2012 Chelsea: QF-L16-QF-F-SF
2011 Barcelona: SF-W-SF-L16-W
2010 Inter: L16-L16-L16-QF-QF
2009 Barcelona: SF-L16-W-L16-DNQ
2008 Man United: SF-L32-L16-L16-QF
Most recent year on the left.

The last six winners reached the knockout stages of the competition at least four times in a row prior to winning the Champions League. If the trend continues we are left with a shortlist comprising:

Bayern Munich 4/1 William Hill
Barcelona 9/2 Boylesports
Real Madrid 11/2 William Hill
Arsenal 33/1 William Hill
AC Milan 80/1 Skybet

With AC Milan going through a transitional phase and Arsenal lacking strength in depth to consistently contend for silverware, in all likelihood the winner will come from the top three names on the list.

Real Madrid’s last Champions League triumph came 12 years ago, only Arsenal have gone longer without winning the competition (they never have) of this group, and that hunger could give them the edge.

After Jose Mourinho’s tenure turned sour, Carlo Ancelotti is the ideal manager to restore harmony at Madrid. He’s got a proven track record in getting the best out of big name players and managing even bigger egos.

Los Blancos continued their strategy of signing Galaticos with the purchase of Gareth Bale in the summer but there were astute signings long before the Welshman arrived.

New recruits Isco and Asier Illarramendi are amongst the best young players in Spain, whilst Álvaro Morata is a promising striker coming through the ranks with 9 goals in only 7 appearances for Spain’s Under-21s.

Drawn in Group B with Juventus, Galatasaray and Copenhagen, progress to the knockout stages looks like a formality. With some of the best players in the world at Ancelotti’s disposal, Real Madrid are hard to oppose at 11/2 (William Hill).

1pt Real Madrid to win 11/2 with William Hill
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Odds correct at time of publishing: 19:12 15th Sep, 2013 but subject to change

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