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14th Sep 2014 | Champions League

Champions League Outright Tip: Barcelona

Won the Champions League three times in the last nine years and Luis Suarez is a strong addition to an already formidable front-line.

Last season we discovered the key to winning the Champions League is experience. We correctly highlighted Real Madrid as the team to follow and we are applying the same logic for the new campaign.

These are the last seven winners of the Champions League and the stage they exited the competition in the five years prior to their victory.

2014: Real Madrid: SF-SF-SF-L16-L16
2013 Bayern Munich: F-L16-F-QF-DNQ
2012 Chelsea: QF-L16-QF-F-SF
2011 Barcelona: SF-W-SF-L16-W
2010 Inter: L16-L16-L16-QF-QF
2009 Barcelona: SF-L16-W-L16-DNQ
2008 Man United: SF-L32-L16-L16-QF
Most recent year on the left.

The last seven winners reached the knockout stages of the competition at least four times in a row prior to winning the Champions League. If the trend continues we are left with a shortlist comprising:

Real Madrid 4/1 BetVictor
Bayern Munich 9/2 Coral
Barcelona 6/1 William Hill
Chelsea 7/1 Paddy Power
Arsenal 25/1 Betfred

The shortlist consists largely of the usual suspects but the bookmakers don’t necessarily have them priced in the correct order.

Last season’s Champions League final was an all-Spanish affair and La Liga could continue it’s monopoly of European silverware. La Liga is arguably the strongest domestic league in Europe and the current leaders Barcelona are overpriced at 6/1.

After a rare fallow year, the Catalan giants will be desperate to reassert their dominance and the signing of Luis Suarez is a signal of intent.

Not many teams can match a front-line comprising Suarez-Neymar-Messi; meanwhile Luis Enrique’s reconstructed back line is yet to concede a goal this season.

Barcelona should navigate Group F without too many problems and having won the Champions League three times in the last nine years, their strike rate makes them better than a 6/1 chance.

1pt Barcelona to win 6/1 with William Hill
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Odds correct at time of publishing: 18:20 14th Sep, 2014 but subject to change

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