Cardiff City v Crystal Palace Tip

With the first semi-final of the Carling Cup on a knife-edge I think there may be some real value to be had based on a specific appreciation of the format of this particular tournament. Unlike the Champions League for example, the ‘away goals rule’ only comes into effect after extra-time.

Crystal Palace lead this tie 1-0 as they head to the Welsh capital, which means that an away goal could be priceless for the Eagles in the second match. If Cardiff win 2-1, 3-2 or 4-3 on the night then there will be extra-time. If there are then no further goals, or even if they end level with further goals, it will be Palace bound for Wembley.

So why is this important? Because under these rules, the Londoners ought to be favourites in the event of extra-time. It would seem that some bookies are wise to this scenario, whereas others may have missed a trick. Palace are 4/1 with Sportingbet to win after extra-time, yet a remarkable 16/1 with Bluesquare for precisely the same bet. Cardiff are a best price of 9/1 to win in extra-time with the same firm. Even with home advantage, given the away-goals rule, I just can’t see how this can be correct.

Dougie Freedman’s side won their quarter-final at Old Trafford after extra-time. This time they wouldn’t neccessarily even need to score in that additional period to repeat the trick. For Cardiff to recover the one-goal deficit in the course of 90 minutes looks quite likely, so this could be a terrific value bet to take on.