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4th Nov 2016 | Premier League

Burnley v Crystal Palace Preview – Palace Win

Burnley v Crystal Palace Preview – Palace Win

Burnley’s draw at Old Trafford was a microcosm of their season. Outplayed and outshot but gaining points with goalkeeping heroics. This cannot continue forever.

Having tipped Burnley to beat Man Utd last weekend it might seem a volte-face to suddenly oppose them after such a great result. The problem with Burnley is they are a not very good and although I’m happy to back a bad team at 18/1 the 9/4 does not appeal.

In truth Burnley were a Tom Heaton away from losing at Old Trafford and they can’t expect him to perform heroics every week. The England goalie is running at an unsustainable 81.2% save percentage this season, only Hugo Loris has a hotter glove.


Sean Dyche talks a good game but he’s masking some woeful numbers. Burnley are out gunned by on average 12.5 shots per game (when adjusting for game state) and their expected goal difference per game is -1.28; only Hull are worse.

Burnley are six places too high in the league on my ratings and are overshooting their expected goal difference by 8. Palace are what they are, a solid mid-table team but at some stage Burnley’s luck will run out meaning the value is on a Crystal Palace win at 7/5.

Odds correct at time of publishing: 05:12 4th Nov, 2016 but subject to change

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