14th Oct 2016 | Premier League
Bob Be Lucky
Guidolin’s tenure was blighted by an atrocious conversion rate but these are prone to variance. Change in manager could coincide with change in luck.
Francesco Guidolin was the first managerial casualty of the season and looking at results alone it’s difficult to argue his case but the headline numbers don’t tell the whole story.
Swansea played Leicester, Chelsea, Southampton, Man City and Liverpool in their last five league fixtures, all realistic top-8 candidates. What didn’t help during this period was the Italian being crippled by shot conversion variance.
In terms of shots for/against, Swansea are 15th in the league on -5 per game, not great but outside of the relegation zone. However, these mediocre numbers were compounded by a 21.4% scoring rate, the second lowest in the league.
Good performances against Man City and Liverpool were ruined by a failure to convert chances and that meant points went begging and Guidolin was shown the door. Conversion rates tend to regress to the mean and new boss Bob Bradley needn’t do anything different to improve results – apart from placate the gods of variance!
On paper a trip to the Emirates is tough but a fresh start and change of fortune could see Swansea grab at least a point. At 29/10 (Coral) they are a good play in the double chance market.
Odds correct at time of publishing: 04:48 14th Oct, 2016 but subject to change
