22nd Apr 2013 | Football
Bayern Munich v Barcelona: Preview & Analysis
Barca have reached a record sixth consecutive semi-final but Bayern are looking for a third final in four years.
Two of Europe’s greatest footballing superpowers lock horns on Tuesday night in the first leg of their Champions League semi-final at the Allianz Arena. We look at where the value may lie in a few different betting markets.
Margin of Victory
The bookies have made Bayern pretty strong favourites for their home leg with last year’s runners-up nothing longer than 13/10 (PaddyPower) to take a lead to Spain. We’ve tipped a narrow victory for the Germans but it is tempting to go for a 2-goal triumph for Jupp Heynckes’ side at best odds of 11/2 with SkyBet.
The fact is that the new Bundesliga champions are formidable on their own ground and beat Juventus by a couple of goals both home and away. They also went to the Emirates and won 3-1 - a 19/1 (BetVictor) shot here. Lest we forget that Barca lost 2-1 at Celtic Park and 2-0 at the San Siro to AC Milan.
Anytime Goalscorer
It shows the enormity of Barcelona’s task that Lionel Messi is actually odds-against to score at 23/20 with BetVictor. This is almost unheard of these days given that the Argentine maestro has claimed 57 goals in 46 club appearances this season, including eight in the Champions League. It’s hard not to be tempted.
Offering up an alternative is Thomas Muller (10/3 Coral) who has top scored for Bayern with five goals in this competition so far. For a cheeky outsider option perhaps consider Jordi Alba for the visitors (12/1 Coral); the only man other than Messi to score more than one Champions League goal this season for Barca.
Possession %
Much has been made of Barcelona’s ball retension, particularly in this season’s competition where they have averaged 68% possession of the ball. This has led BetVictor to offer 11/10 on the La Liga leaders achieving under 60% in the Allianz Arena.
In other words, we are getting better than evens money on Bayern having over 40% of the ball. Given that the Germans have home advantage and the second best possession stats in the Champions League this looks like a bargain.
Odds correct at time of publishing: 16:38 22nd Apr, 2013 but subject to change