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20th Nov 2014 | Premier League

Emirates Cleared For Take-Off

We compare Arsenal and Manchester United shot data in what could be a thrilling affair.

The big game of the weekend sees Arsenal take on Man Utd at the Emirates with defeat likely to extinguish either side’s faint hope of a title challenge - if it even exists at all.

With 11 games completed we can go beyond the bare results and build a picture of each side using shot data.

Home/Away Performance Derived From Shots
arsenal v united shots

Arsenal have enjoyed themselves at the Emirates this season if shots are to be believed. The Gunners average 20.4 shots per game, equivalent of 2.1 expected goals per game and a theoretical 69% win rate.

United have been more circumspect on their travels, averaging 12.8 shots per game. That is still enough to see them ranked sixth in the league and equates to 1.3 expected goals per game and a 39% win rate.

Expected Odds
arsenal v united odds

We can quickly derive win/lose/draw odds from the shot performance data and compare what’s available on the market.

Currently, an Arsenal win is underrated by 14% and a home win at 5/4 (Betfred) is a potential bet.

Those looking for a correct score wager should factor in that both teams are shot happy and have high expected goal numbers. A win for Arsenal in a high scoring game is one possible play; with a 3-2 scoreline 25/1 with Bet365.

Odds correct at time of publishing: 18:33 20th Nov, 2014 but subject to change

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